laffer and the bonus army

laffer and the bonus army.

looking over the past week’s topics everything is so serious and well, ..I wanted to do something lighter today. but then I was looking at a book on supply-side economics and I couldn’t help myself.. lol

supply side economics is a favorite of the Chicago school.

people sometimes talk about the ‘ricardian vice’ referring to the development of unreal and oversimplified theoretical models of economy that are totally divorced from reality. its either a con-job or basically delusional/ pathological..

in 1954 milton friedman wrote. “the economy of America is depression proof.” he had a model to prove it. some of it was true(like the best lies.)

friedman and schwarz’ analysis of the causes of the 30s depression.. blames the contraction in money supply between feb 29 and march 33. they proved that it wasn’t the gold standard that caused the depression.

this is what mr. obama is attempting to avoid I suppose.

the paradigm of the roaring 20s was broken and the fed contracted money supply! they made a mistake.

this was the time when the invisible jackboot of the market was worn by the likes of general george patton and the bayonetts were turned on the bonus army. (see wiki article.)

stagnation followed in the 30s. some people argue it was exacerbated by new dealism which destroyed investor confidence. the idea that capital wanted to punish the proles for having the temerity to demand some social justice.

conventional wisdom says that it was the mobilization of ww2 that pulled the usa out of recession .. others say the it was the post war dropping of regulation and refocussing on civilian production. that investor confidence returned.

i reckon it was because the rest of the world had to finally admit it was wrong and gave leadership to the new world and its optimism which became the engine for unprecedented global growth. the problem was the corruption surfacing on wall st. masked by pseudo-liberalism and its fake modelling.

global free-market capitalism.. is the rhetoric .. a beautiful model of self regulating markets… except that like in the 1920s it was greedy bastards masquerading as free marketeers who gained control of the institutions... major banks and fed. so it seems from here.

there were fairly polite arguments. the guys who trotted them out totally didn’t mention the fact that the entire us banking system was being built on toxic assets inflated with totally unsustainable debt and a derivative market ‘worth’ hundreds of trillions. the so called free-market supply-siders have consistently ignored realities preferring the ricardian vice of the false economy. it was Arthur laffer and his disciples in reaganomics that really jacked up the practice though it had been building up since the theoretical formulations of the Chicago school.(1950s on). tax cuts.. less regulation.. free trade.. this is what has lead to the crash beginning 2008. it was no real free market nor was it Keynes. it was supply-side liars and delusionists.

since the 30s depression, the libetarian economic philosophy of the 'austrian school'… like l. von mises, hayek, Schumpeter has been ignored except by the odd entrepeneur. I’d say .. that if we avoid a prolonged stone age this time around …if..... then such names should become more widespread before the next kondratiev wave as joseph schumpeter calls the period between depressions. (see wiki)

the old story.. a form is created . (the post war system).. its imperfections show up and it is destroyed. a new one is created with the addition of the knowledge gained from the last one.

have a nice weekend..

tejas fu.

hizbollah, the ayatollah and change.

revelations and revolutions.

seeking clarity.

hizbollah.

the so called ‘ayatollah’ ruhollah Khomeini was a revolutionary figure. not because he was there to take power from a totally corrupt regime of the shah, but because he represented a radical departure in so called shiite islam. his influence is really remarkable in that he and his successors have brought the republic of iran to a new profile in the entire muslim world. true.. it has come at a price but what was the alternative?

so what is the link between hizbollah and iran? it’s a question that opens many many more.

from this distance at least it seems that in 2006 hizbollah was the only fighting force to show againt the ‘israeli’ aggression that destroyed Beirut yet again.... and in a position to defeat the so called Israeli defence force (which has proved itself to be more an aggression force than defence force ….so often that the title has become propagandist.) …the hyper-trained and ultra well equipped ‘idf’ is no longer facing defenceless villagers and chickpea peasants with their women and children in the levant. that is a change.

the formation of hizbollah is connected with another Shiite group in Lebanon.. amal. in the early 1980s amal that had formed in the 1970s was interested in alliances with sunni and christian militias in countering the ‘idf.’ then...with the encouragement of Khomeini, people like ‘imad mughniyeh wanted to deal with Israel on their own terms . they had the backing of the ideology of the Iranian revolution....( subsequently they developed along lebanese nationalist lines.)

the fragile and essentially powerless edifice of Lebanese politics, factionalised and deep in civil war since 1975 began to change.

in 1983 came the formation of hizbollah (first called organization of the oppressed)initially as a guerrilla force .. their first move seems to have been the suicide bombings of the us embassy and then the marine base and French base in Beirut. apparently led by imad mughniyeh (who was assassinated in feb 2008 probably by mossad ). the action got rid of the un forces that occupied Beirut after the civil war and bloody exploits of ariel Sharon and his cohorts. (sabra shatila).. suicide action had been a technique developed by Khomeini in the war against iraq. iraq’s modern well equipped army had attacked iran in 1980 when its army was being purged and reorganized.. when iran was boycotted by the usa for the hostage crisis. (saddam thought he saw an opportunity.)

this particular Islamic jihad is a very bitter story. written in the blood of many martyrs to the cause as espoused by Khomeini.

from Iranian inspiration, hizbollah has achieved huge progress both as a guerrilla force and as a political party integrated into the fabric of Lebanon and now committed to pluralist democracy while at the same time committed to the removal of ‘israel’ from Palestine just as the ‘israelis’ are committed to the removal of the palestinians from what they claim to be their land. this is indeed a new force in the so called middle east.

the link with iran is underwritten by the religious fervour of revolutionary islam.

no point pretending it doesnt exist.

...tejasfu

trojan white and asbestos dust

the indicators are not looking good.

the s&p 500 profits are down ..ahem quite a lot.

‘economists’ are becoming unmasked as charlatans and liars. even fools who bought into consumer macro-models of the past 30 years will be sobered by the consequences of the current data. it’s a pretty safe bet.. but you never know..... some fools go to hell uncured.

the expression ‘hypercompetitive world’ flits about. people continue to ignore the threat of environmental catastrophe and human rights abuse. same as .. same as.. yeah.. the trumpet will sound.. they say scornfully..

so the post-cold war period is over. but dust has not even started to settle as the pillars of the gilded bastion continue to go down…..

it wont be long though. it will settle.. asbestos and all---globally but not according the the dictates of some ‘superpower’. the global cat is out of the bottle. lol.

the conventional view goes something like this…

brutal attacks of 9/11 bla bla bla victorious ideology of democracy and capitalism bla era of unipolar world of globalizm since the end of cold war and unification of Europe.. bla prosperity with unknown terror threats of muslim fanatics and iran, bla ..a wakening chinese giant to be managed on the world stage by the atlantic masters. blab bla brics emerging to bring the suffering millions to beaugeois bliss due to wonder of globalizm , world-recession magic stimulus package.. bla bla bla

this cat thinks that that is a load of crap. not worth a sentence to dismiss.

i think a.einstein said …only two things are infinite.. the cosmos and human stupidity.

delusion maya. stupidity..

the truth is that this world is a consequence not a cause. as goes the hermetic axiom.

last time the model crashed was late 1920's. it took till 1945 and a tremendous struggle between the opposing forces before there was a new one in place. humanity has sobered up a bit since then . certainly. we may escape the violence .. on the same scale at least.. and it will probably take less time this time around.

things move faster these days.

the determinants are food, water, shelter (and implied security) for 6. something billion souls. if you don’t like it.. you got another thing coming. …power will go to those best able to provide it. …. neither the silk-suited performers in the ivory tower of some glorified rhetoric competition nor frozen power freaks red or green. it is the 6+ bill that are the determinants of the future ….not the warped dream of some so called expert in the pay of silk suits. don’t waste my time. we’re talking about facing a possible future like the new dark-ages or some neo-neolithic era.... just around the corner… what are they gonna do with their freaking Chicago economics texts then? fools.

their mouths are stopped with dust. asbestos dust.

tejasfu

perennial vrs conventional wisdom

perennial vrs conventional wisdom.

you should always hear a woman’s argument before you tick her off. it’s a rule but I ignored it. I had heard that james lovelock advocates nuclear energy so had never bothered to read his thesis.

his original work Gaia 1979 outlines the idea that earth is a self regulating entity. it has since then become increasing accepted wisdom because his argument is scientific, powerful and wise.

his main point is time. we are at a critical point for the environment. far from being able to afford laissez faire and a 1^st world lifestyle when the planet has 6 billion people, we cannot afford sustainable development. we have to get to battle statioms. now.

what he is really advocating is the wise use of renewables and nuclear fusion which I didn’t really realize is entirely different from fission and has the harmless bi-product of helium only. he advocates fission, yes and then gives an argument that the objections to it are misguided and based on fear and a lack of realization of how little time we have.

compared to burning fossil fuels for electricity fission is cheap, plentiful and relatively safe. his arguments are compelling.

we can no longer burn fossil fuels. the objections to the dangers of nuclear energy are exaggerated . he cites the WHO figure that 75 people died at chernobyle. not the thousands of tabloid impact.

we need a deep seated change of heart.

the belief that the earth is there to be exploited has to be quashed... fast . it’s the most dangerous. lie.......humans have to overcome their tribal carnivore nature…

he is no minion of the nuclear industry or any other. i was wrong to ignore him. so you would you be..

professor lovelock has put his argument out again.

The revenge of Gaia: james lovelock penguin London 2006

tejas fu..

seppo medicine and camp delta.

兵 不厌诈。

first casualty of war is truth.

the usa is a signatory to the 1984 un. convention on the banning of torture. yet amnesty and others maintain that torture is a regular feature at Guantanamo bay or camp delta as it is referred to in the literature. the terrible facts of rendition of prisoners to secret centres around the world where the un. convention has never been heard of continue to surface in the media and elsewhere (like abu graib). it is kept secret.

there are both security and human rights issues at stake. and they are of the utmost seriousness. the usa gained power as defender of human rights and champion of liberty. it stands to lose it by betraying its principles.

none of the prisoners in cuba are categorised as pows and so there is no issue of the geneva convention (to which the usa is also signatory.) the choice of Guantanamo puts it outside the legal jurisdiction of the usa. security at the facility is ultra max. the people are at the mercy of their captors.

it is the methods of interrogation that is the issue. those of the cia and mi6. there are questions of accountability.. justice.. truth.

the usa didn’t sign the Geneva protocol banning biological weapons till 1975. throughtout most of the post war period spurred on by mcCarthyism, it developed huge stockpiles of germ weapons and developed the delivery systems. it aimed to keep ahead of the ussr and china who were doing the same thing. the usa programs took place mainly at fort detrick. it was where agent orange was developed.. but what is less well know is that alongside the development of germ warfare, there was a program of mind control. .. the search for a way to destroy a mans free will was carried out at fort detrick and other locations (montreal). there were mafia links with funding . the name of Dr. Sidney Gottliebson stands out. (its the stuff that makes the movie 'manchurian candidate' believable.)

research apparently began the use of lsd and voodoo, electric shocks. the 'work' of the Spanish inquisition, and techniques developed by nazi germany were studied. human guinea pigs were used. it was kept secret. obviously it didn’t stop after 1975. it is called state sponsored medical torture.

amnesty international mentions solitary confinement as the main concern at Guantanamo. isolation techniques. the red cross is the only independent monitoring organization allowed in.. they describe it as ‘extremely harsh.’ (one wonders if they would be allowed in if they were to say more.)

the entire process of Guantanamo is a travesty of the ennunciated principles of the usa.

sed ....Quis custodiet ipsos custodes.

but...who will police the police?

staying silent about this kind of outrage is exactly what they want.

tejas fu

...

magic vandana and the hydra

or biopiracy vrs. people

there are 6 point something billion human hearts beating. (what a beautiful sound!)

basic needs are food water and shelter . in the more abstract context of employment, environment and energy.

50% of the 6 are farmers.. it is an interesting statistic.. it was a greater percentage in the past. at least since the ‘Neolithic revolution’ when humans put away the clubs and spears and got out the hoes and spades the oxen and the plow.. rotary hoe and tractor if you’re lucky. a sickle. it was a glorious revolution .. . incidentally, Hercules used a sickle to slay the hydra. (2^nd labour)

farming involves an earth consciousness.. a respect for the creative process of life.

according to vandana shiva,*, small farms are the answer. she is formidable. be warned all you minions of biopiracy and corporate globalism.. your days are numbered.

she is about an ecologically sustainable paradigm. the small farm (in contrast to corporate monoculture) is the solution to climate change, employment and nutrition. none of my friends would have the nerve to disagree with her. not a chance. heheheh.

Indian farmers in particular have been the victim of global agriculture in a way reminiscent of the (more or less brutal) expropriation of the indigenous people of my native country, Australia, over the past 200 years.

what angers people like shiva is the lie that industrial agriculture is more productive…

corporate agriculture and genetic engineering is killing people. it is driven by the ownership (greed) mentality peddled by the likes of the bloody Chicago school of ‘economics’ for the past however many years.

man doesn’t own the earth. (the thought is) ridiculous!!!!!

this cat believes that food is about a) nourishment b) nourishment and c) nourishment.

obesity and toxic buildup in the body (or environment) is a form of karmic insanity and a poison in the blood. (careful or you will be a victim of it.)

.

the good news is that pseudo-liberalism is on the way out--- sinking in a black hole of bankruptcy and debt ---taking down its faceless creditors with it as well (with a bit of luck). its not just one or two heads off the hydra: it’s being pounded by the law and poisoned by its own toxic assets and lies.

(chief seattle.)

* no problem at all gracing the blog with this one..

Earth Democracy. vandana shiva: zed books London 2006

tejasfu....

prc/eu

china’s view on the eu. (brief lowdown)*

it’s a story of deepening ties and optimism.

the multilateral eu was formed out of the rubble of ww2, gradually coalescing. the relationship between the prc and eu is new as both countries are new and is unburdened by the issues that beset china/America or china/japan.

the usa cannot be ignored as it is like the third point in a triangle. (to put it in English heheh).

the bamboo curtain started to come down after charles de gaulle’s recognition of the prc in 1964. (then the Nixon visit was a major turning point in attitudes to external affairs. (from beijings point of view.))

academic studies began in the 1970’s though information was not easily accessible. that is no longer a problem and understanding of European affairs in china has deepened, though there is still more concentration on japan and the usa.

many studies focus on the search for a social model in china. the balance between economic development and social equity is observed. issues of integration. Europe stands or falls on the platform of multilatereralism. chinese could certainly take a leaf out of that book. (just a thought)

alongside social reform, law of banking, trade regulation and environmental and intellectual property issues are studied.

chinese government policy has its own thinktanks. its information is said to come from information gleaned from an embassy near you. the embassies have their own research units. (like other countries)

it maybe thought that Europe researchers in academic china have negligible impact on policy formation. they see their role as forming public opinion and in basic research.... however chinese have a history of paying attention to their scholars cultural revolution notwithstanding.

china’s Europe policy is well informed and optimistic though critics (americans) sense (not unexpectedly) the presence of cognitive dissonance (the tendency to view a situation in terms of received doctrine.) ....unlike the view of Washington from Beijing , which is dominated with strategic issues of military relationships on china’s periphery and adversarial trade issues, there is no such strategic mistrust between Beijing and brussels.

the americans are of course intereted in the relationship in terms of the European arms embargo on china. but its attention has been focussed on iraq and terrorists both real and imagined, and it is now understandably concerned with its own economic worries..

there are many issues of common concern between the three.

the china--europe relationship has come a long way in 30 years. and prospects look rosy.

***

* I hate cluttering a blog with academic references but for this essay I am indebted to China-Europe Relations. eds. David Shambaugh, Eberhard Sandsneider and Zhao Hong . routelege 2008 NY.

neanderthals and manas.

there was a mad bomber in Jakarta the other day.. I heard it on the radio. I leave it on by mistake sometimes after some program or other and get a dose of the ‘news’ before I manage to silence the thing. ..

if you've ever tried drinking the water there, then you're not going to be surprised....hard-line corrupt secularist government, violently established by american agents against mad bombers. I really don’t know for whom I have less sympathy. murderers.

then

the capitalists have no capital.. which makes them hoarders. capital implies a willingness to invest in plant and labour. hence capitalism. hording is something completely different. it’s a poverty consciousness and destructive. capitalism is as good a financial setup as the people who conduct it. the people who conduct it are as good as their principles.. if their principles fall low enough then they will lose them. democracy is no different. corruption endangers both.

40 years since the moonlanding.. these days the question of space is about seti. the search for intelligence. in space.. I assume that includes earth.. its not surprising they have found so little here that they point the telescope outward. according to some, the prospects are not looking good. but at least the search goes on. hehehe.

the other day I heard a professor explaining his theory that it wasn’t just the eating of meat that made pre-humans into homo erectus.. it was the cooking of food facilitating digestiom/absorbtion of proteins.

it was interesting as the concept sheds light on political economy---- as a rudimentary or fundamental in human life.

having a fire involves organization and science. cooking and storing food involves a political and economic organization. the food must be prepared and stored. it requires allocation of resources. orchestration.

it was the cooking of food the professor argues, that changed man from being more like a primate.. with huge teeth and belly .. and enabled her to devote resources to more than chewing food which is what takes up most of the day of your average primate and i guess neanderthal.

thus a move made by prehumans enabled the development of humans up to and beyond the point of proving that people can walk on the moon. a dead planet.

in mythology it was the friend of man --prometheus --who stole fire from zeus and gifted it to mankind. it wasn’t the cooking but the fire that made the difference..

others say that the divine spark was transmitted to earth from the Logos of Venus. depends if one is more scientific, religious or poetic. but the spark of reason was given to man.. or mind. manas … despite appearances.

and so the long journey began.

bull poker and the u.n.

the international order is under question. .. shifts in weight have already occurred. a reshuffling will inevitably follow on the surface.

so.. are the experts ready to deliver with a coherent framework of comprehension ????????

um.

political science looks at the state structure and has developed sophistication since early times ( e.g. plato’s republic) kinda like economics/business.

however, the theory of international relations. or the structure of the various states in relation to each other is still not developed nor is popular consciousness particularly sophisticated in this regard. . last century saw two horrific wars made possible by ignorance of internationalism. and quite frankly bigotry is still rife.

the 1914 -18 slaughter was horrific.

the league of nations was formed to introduce reason into the question of state to state interaction.

with the re-establishment of reactionary forces in the interwar period, the carnage was resumed. a second attempt was formulated with the united nations.

state relations were to be regulated scientifically with debate in the open.. there was to be no more cloak-and-dagger balance-of-power politics. the brutality of the wars produced a new order.

the 2 superpowers developed basically in peaceful competition to the point of racing each other to the moon. mmm. (40 years ago to the day) --it was good.

the undercurrent was the nuclear issue and human rights in both superpowers (and their clients.. kgb cia etc) and in the developing power of the peoples republic of china.

the point of all this preamble is to place the current instability in perspective.

the un no longer has credibility. the idealists have been long sold out. but there is no reason why a new model cannot be developed.

human nature changes but not fast. evolution happens gradually. occidental people exposed to the wars gained the experience of the violence that happens when modern brutal state power is unleashed. …. the chinese and russians on the other hand have developed more sensitivity to the factor of brutal state violence inwardly focussed. this seems to be another major consequence of the cold war.

these are intensely volatile issues just beneath the surface... among all parties.

we basically know what is in everyone’s hand, but the question is how the current round is played out.

the bull is obvious enough. it is regression into chaos/brutality. it is breathing down the necks of the players. like the chill of the weapons of the cold war.

what is obvious is that the planet needs to get rid of the bull, the cowboys and the less than zero-sum poker game altogether and begin with a new order.

there needs to be a real forum to act as a clearing house for international relations. true.. it needs institutions.. for the orderly benefit of all groups.

there is every reason to be optimistic that a peaceful and positive order may arise to take the place of the corrupt, distorted structure we now have. a new united nations.. a new financial system. new ideology of international relations entering into the peoples’ consciousness.

it is the idealists (optimists) who will win the day.

so.. yes …there is a coherent framework. it is just waiting to emerge.

...

yuan 元

gold seems to be on the way up. is there anyone out there who can honestly see an alternative?

also.. and on another note, it seems that china will be making a move sooner rather than later to internationalize the yuan. it was a few months ago when sdrs were mentioned and a bilateral arrangement with brazil appeared in the news.

connected with this is of course the expected instability resulting from the us fed. printing dollars.( quantitative easing) I don’t even like dredging up the trite euphamism.)

china and brazil agreed to use their own currencies rather than denominate their trade in us dollars. it was some kind of currency swap) brazil is a large producer of ethanol from sugar. my guess is that this is what china is after (as well as making a test case).. an alternative fuel source before something else can be developed or at least some sort of insurance policy. (china will not be able to power its economic expansion on oil.)

there is also still a lot of bad air about iron ore.. with at least one official in the cooler at last count.

the g-8 members basically ignored china in calling for an altenative to the us dollar as an international currency. . a devaluation of their (chinas) dollars is obviously a worry. one of the solutions maybe to make the yuan an international currency sooner rather than later. if it is going to pay people to use the yuan, then they will use the yuan. that is the law.

the usa ensured the use of its currency as a reserve by post ww2 aid and particularly by controlling oil production having it priced in us$. (this is the reason for us dominance of the middle east.) it was crucial for american policy of basically spreading it around.. (euro/petrodollars) .. things have changed.

what china controls is manufacturing. though there is overcapacity atm, the slack won't be long in taking up. by the time it does there will have been a reconfiguration. its really up to what the chinese bank decides.. when the time is right. trade finance will be extended in yuan.

without a doubt, the chinese will act to protect their reserves.

the consequence will probably be that the yuan becomes a sought after currency as was the us dollar in the post war period (especially after 1971). .. something which will revalue it taking away the prc's price advantage (as an exporter of manufactured goods.)

the ramifications are probably as many as are the perks and pitfalls of seigniorage.

the yuan, underwritten by the huge manufacturing capacity of the prc is a known (heheheh) unknown. gold or copper as a standard is more easily quantified. for sure.

people say that the chinese banking system has problems of bad debt and inexperience with modern methods.. I tend to scoff at that. the chinese invented it. didn’t they?

i do doubt that they want to hear anything about a gold standard. (at least they dont admit to having much.)

another thing for sure is that the system we have now is on the nose.

we live in interesting times.

watch this space and be ready to hold on to your hat.

...

corrections

a couple of corrections before the week end and getting into something new.

first I said I though there was no politician in the usa who would advocate another war in the mid east right now... I was wrong.. newt gingrich is picking a fight with iran. .theres an article on the al-jazeerah site…. I should have thought of him. lol (better be careful what i say.. there is a chance that he could be the next president.)

the other thing not entirely as good as possible.. heheh. is the idea of debt to gdp ratio I was wondering about the other week..

it can certainly be above 10% .. in fact hearsay puts the Japanese one somewhere around 200%.. great britain in the 19^th century was also about 200. though too early to say much about the ultimate consequence of japan's debt position ( though they talk about a lost generation)…, we can however draw some consulsions about the consequences for England. they invested in empire..... to be fair it played an important role in unifying the world.. but at very great expense to the world and to itself. the consequences are still unfolding. at last count the fundamentally unproductive finance industry into which the british economy had retreated was not looking too healthy. nor does the city look like being anything more than obsolete as quickly as power shifts to the asia pacific .. some geopolitics moves glacially .

good economists run rings around my understanding…. like the guys at goldman sachs.. wow. are those guys fast!!??? unbelievable!!! they don’t use hats these days… its black boxes.

however… they wont have to read this blog.. they’d already know.

public debt to gdp ratio maybe a bit like a mortgage for the home.. one can incur a debt in the multiples of annual earnings.. if the property is well ‘located’ then one should be happy to pay it off and grow old doing so.. or sell it and move on. if you were to blow all the borrowed cash on machine guns or some other pretty bauble/ bubble, you would certainly harm yourself and probably others as well. (more like blow-back than just blow)

its an obvious enough analogy if you think about it.

today I just want to sum up and look forward to the weekend..

the buddha assures us that change is the only surety. important changes happen imperceptibly. to such an ephemeral as a human being, stasis/form is a powerful illusion but there are never two instants where the stars or even an atom of substance are in the same configuration. it progresses into infinity.

oh.. yes.. as for the Japanese gdp ratio..hehehe .. they borrowed trillions of yen (not quite infinity) to finance the bailout of insolvent zombie banks inflated with property bubbles from the 1980s already. the following generation are paying the price.

the japanese are resilient. hopefully something as good as the toyota hiace will come out of the next generation. (i used to have one.. it was great.)

....

pukka maoists?

observations down the left barrel.

the other night I heard on the news that ‘maoist guerrillas’ had shot 30 odd police in Chhattisgarh.. now I had to check the map.. (and spelling).. it is rather startling if you think about it. . mmm. its between Calcutta and Bombay closer to the former.. orthadox newspaper mentions ‘8 maoist affected states’ as if they had something like swineflu.

different travellers/commentators say that there is huge social unrest throughout India, with civil wars of various intensity from the most famous in Kashmir and the standoff between Pakistan and India, to Orissa and stonethrowing among the hillbillies. that the ‘rebels’ are ‘maoist’ is interesting. they progressed to government in Nepal where I am pretty sure they weren’t described in the same terms as swineflu. they tell me that in Orissa it is basically about landrights.. (a struggle against some australian (in this instance) mining company who probably sent goons to drive them off their traditional land.) (they’ve had practice …. plenty.)

the ‘maoists’ are probably about as coordinated as the response of delhi. my guess is that no one wants to rock the boat too much while it merrily drifts down the ganga. somehow I doubt that they qualify as maoists.

prior to the 1950s the contact between India and china was on a very subjective level..( journey to the west … bodhidarma..)

it was the 1950 summit between mao and stalin that determined the future course of much of international relations between India, china and the erstwhile superpowers. mao ze dong, distinctly unimpressed with joseph stalin.. played the usa card and opened dialog with the ‘west’ to spite stalin.. while the ussr shifted its attention to India. Nehru developed along socialist, non-aligned lines. china took the way of industrializing on the heavy industry model broadly simular to japan, increasingly disassociated with ussr..and coming to favour the pakistanis… its kinda bizarre when you think about it.

that 1950 meeting was the juncture…

in some ways china has left india behind. a long way. infrastructure, literacy… the list is long. yet it is not an easy task to make such comparisons. the cultural differences are deep.

India lags in material development on the one hand but its people escaped the fate of some 70 million individuals in china who perished as a result of the peace-time policies of the communist regime. there is absolutely nothing bizarre about that.

such a lag is a measure of india’s strength not its weakness.

.

both became founded sovereign states at about the same time.. 1949/1950.. india was quick to recognise the prc.

since then there has been some border friction (aksai chan near Pakistan.) between the two and differences of opinion over tibet.. though the central concern of both states has been internal development….

in October ‘62 the pla taught the Indian army a lesson and then unilaterally withdrew. from then on sino-pakistani relations improved while prc -indian relations cooled significantly ..there has been the odd accusation from both sides of interference in domestic affairs..

they have nothing to gain from hostility. it is interesting to compare the two economies --like apples and oranges.... they have developed along different lines.

the disagreement over Tibet was settled with the trade-off of recognition of chinese sovereignty for settlement of claims to sikkim I think is how it went though I haven’t read the text.

while the teaching of the buddha struck a deep note in traditional china, maoism was never welcome in Hindustan. it maybe the reason why any deviation from orthodoxy is there branded ‘maoist rebel’.

non-agression is the key in the subject of India-china relations. * if the indians want to be aggressive they don’t have to go all the way to china.. the chinese of course have a fairly long list of options.

*i would like to talk about this next week.(non-agression –ahimsa)

i would also like to express my condolences to the families of both the police who lost their lives and to those of any of the 'maoist rebels' who fell.

age of aquarius

age of aquarius. it is the sign ruled by Saturn and Uranus.

the usa is said to be under the sign of aquarius.

Uranus has relatively recently been popularly recognised though there are indications that it has been observed since early times.

it seems like a higher octave of mercury…. it is said to be the planet of revolutions, innovations/synthesis and high-tech…. the internet.

you may wonder why a ninelives political-economy is giving space to astrology.. but astrology is a symbolic medium of communication.. the science of the stars is the greatest science .. if only we could grasp it…. but at any rate, indicating that Uranus is strong in the chart of the usa says heaps.

the internet has revolutionized the way we think and communicate and do business in a way unthought of just 2 decades ago.

the silicon chip, a spinoff of quantum physics…, wedded with electronic telecommunications is the internet.

this is innovation. so uranian. so the America (which is basically the synthesis of Europe) admired by the entire planet..

since fiat currency is determined by the perceived value of the underlying economy, whoever has an innovative edge has an edge indeed.

California is known mostly for its movie industry. you’d have to say that Neptune is strong in its chart.. and now issues its own currency (the cali iou) putting it effectively outside the usa.

um..

other states may soon follow.. a texan I spoke with once said they would leave the union in a heartbeat. I don’t know what sign texas is under. libra ??

it wouldn’t surprise me if the usa effectively breaks up before this depression is over. who wouldn’t want to cut Washington loose after its policy record of the past 50 years and its current debasing of the currency/support of zombie institutions? honestly? its not that I want to see it happen. a usa true to its aquarian constitution has progressed humanity so much…

but its not the only synthesising country with Uranus strong in its chart and may have to come up with something better than another stimulus package if it is to maintain its integrity into the aquarian age.

...

iran and shatranj.

shatranj is the parsee word for chess. they invented it…….

1979 seems so long ago. it was jimmy carter and the shah vrs the ayatollah like something out of a horror movie that made the headlines.

then reagan reset the agendum removing human rights and détente as part of policy as promoted by the carter admin. , and resuming cold war commitments and flirtations with even the most odious third world dictators.

yesterday I mentioned peak oil in iraq.. some people suggest that iran’s oil is about to run out as well. why else has the infrastructure not been renewed???? this would also explain the recent hardline crackdown by the government. the ayatollahs and mullahs have been cushioned with oil revenues in whatever they have for a parliament. maybe they know something we are only guessing at.

i kinda wonder what happens to the economy of iran when the oil peaks. the ’79 revloution was extremely popular not so much because the iranians so wanted an ayatollah though many certainly did..…. it was because the shah of iran held power by terrorising them with torture and patronage. he was, in short, as brutal a dictator as the americans have sponsored. (and that is really saying something.) some 2000 peaceful protestors were gunned down by the shah’s goons in one sitting alone in ’78. carter and his agents had moved the wrong peice. it was a continuation of bad play . . America should have sought to work with mosaddeq a generation earlier, not destroy him.

the major difference now is that there is no cold war framework

that was the backdrop in 1979….. America has also just begun to dismantle its bush/reagan doctrine legacy that has held it in thrall/ horrified fascination since the apparent failure of carters policy at that time. he was checkmated. a new game began.

now there is not even a hint of justification of us involvement despite all the guff about nuclear weapons nor can i think of any politician in America who would try advocating another war in the middle east right now….

oh how the board has been re-arranged.!!!

among the states of the modern world iran has few friends. it was alienated throughout the ottoman period... it has become very introspective only recently having rebuilt its populace from the devastation initiated by genghis khan in the 13^th century.. (seriously) (read wiki if you need figures)

like the rest of the muslim world iran seems to me to be in acute need of re-arranging some of its fundamentals---marginalising some features and bringing others into full text. (this despite their obvious skill on the board.)

this will only happen when a rapprochement with so called sunni islam is central to its agenda (and vice-versa). the way for this may open up faster than anyone expects. (just a thought) .. there only need be some minor adjustments on both sides if you think positively about it..

the alternatives maybe grim indeed. at best iran could be headed towards the status of just one more central-asian (basket-case) republic. that is one possible future..

there are others…. very difficult to know. it makes me feel slightly sympathetic towards carter for his amateurish game of shatranj.